Keyword: «macroeconomic «chains»»

In a national economy, there are many causal relationships. A special place among them is occupied by dependencies between macroeconomic markets. This article attempts to consider the dependencies between money and commodity markets in the Russian economy over a sufficiently long 20-year period, broken down by decades 2000–2009 and 2010–2019. As a result of studying empirical material, it turned out that the dynamics of real GDP in our country very seriously depends on the dynamics of real money supply. Business entities respond to an increase in the real amount of money in the economy by increasing the number of transactions in which they participate, which leads to an increase in real GDP. The elasticity set over 10-year periods, however, is quite stable, but noticeably less than unity. In the decades under consideration, there is an opposite relationship between the change in money supply and the interest rate of the Central Bank. However, in general, the effect of changes in the net price of money on the dynamics of GDP is practically absent, which can only be explained by the absence of a real effective mechanism for the effect of a decreasing net interest rate on the behavior of producers and consumers. The creation of such a mechanism may, in our opinion, lead to a noticeable acceleration in the growth rate of real GDP even with a sufficiently low positive interest rate of the Central Bank.