Keyword: «catastrophic floods»

SPRING FLOOD ON THE LENA RIVER NEAR YAKUTSK

Authors:

Galina Strychkova,

Varvara Timofeeva,

Tamara Kapitonova,

Sardana Tihonova,

Lina Tarskaya,

Georgii Popov,

Anna Gavrileva

The paper presents a review of various methods and neural network algorithms for predicting spring flood hazards on the Lena River in the vicinity of Yakutsk. The factors that have a significant impact on the maximum level of floods are given, the combination of which can lead to catastrophic emergency situations. The risk of exceeding the water level in the flooding of the critical values in the Tabaga village area for the time period of 5, 10 and 77 years is assessed. A cartographic model of area zoning by degree of flood danger was built, areas of possible flooding of the area are shown.

Keywords: forecasting, artificial neural networks, statistical data, spring floods, catastrophic floods, bayesian confidence networks