Keyword: «individual risk»

Improving the industrial safety of hazardous production facilities operating in the North requires comprehensive consideration of the impact of natural and climatic factors specific to this area on risk parameters. Low temperatures and abnormal weather conditions of the North have a significant impact on both the frequency of accidents and the development of accidents. Abnormal weather conditions in the North are characterized by powerful temperature inversions that occur during anticyclone due to the emission of permafrost soil at extremely low ambient temperatures, and air stagnation conditions. The article presents an assessment of the risk of an accident in the event of a gas leak on the above-ground sections of the gas pipeline, taking into account abnormal weather conditions in the North. A model for assessing the potential risk has been developed taking into account abnormal weather conditions in the North. The potential and individual risk in the event of an explosion of a cloud of a gas-air mixture of methane in an open area was assessed.

The article presents a model for assessing the potential risk of gas leakage from a gas pipeline under abnormal weather conditions in the North. Based on the results of the analysis of accidents on aboveground and underground sections of gas pipelines, the main causes of gas pipeline accidents have been identified, a “failure tree” of gas leakage has been developed with an assessment of failure rates. The influence of dangerous weather conditions on the process of gas dispersion is substantiated. The frequencies of formation of an explosive cloud of methane gas-air mixture under adverse weather conditions of the North are estimated. The potential and individual risks of accidents of underground and aboveground sections of gas pipelines in the implementation of the scenario – the outflow of gas without instant ignition.