Keyword: «main pipeline»

The development of emergency situations on main pipelines running in the permafrost zone is affected by the loss of stability due to uneven freezing and thawing of rocks, the formation of heaving mounds, the displacement of the pipeline axis from the design position, the formation of ice along the route, pipeline rupture due to operating errors, defects equipment, corrosion, etc. The calculation of a risk score is often difficult due to the large number of uncertainties in the data used and available. The most effective and satisfactory assessment in terms of accuracy can be achieved with a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods – fuzzy models that combine qualitative expert knowledge and quantitative statistical methods.

Long-term safe operation of underground gas and oil pipelines is major priority for operating organizations, allowing them to minimize high-cost repairs (rerouting or section replacement). For this reason, current advancements in pipeline deformity analysis are focused on combining kinematic models of pipeline spatial dynamics, based on rigid body kinematics, and the mechanics of deformable solids. Our paper investigates options to apply the kinematic model for improved displacement detection in main gas and oil pipelines exposed to long-term operation. The technical improvement proposed in the paper ensures more accurate simulation of pipeline geometry changes over a specified time, including the confidence interval value for each simulation run.