Lev Ananev

The modern lifestyle of students is characterized by high digital engagement, which leads to a reduction in the body's functional reserves, deterioration of physical fitness, and inability to reach the GTO standards. At the same time, physical education and sports can change this situation. However, the existing physical education programs in universities do not take into account the modern realities of student life. The relevance of the study is determined by the need for innovative approaches to physical education of students in the context of digital transformation of society. The introduction of digital tools for monitoring physical fitness and automating diagnostic processes will make it possible to implement pedagogical forecasting of the success in reaching standards, which will make it possible to build a proactive assessment of the dynamics of students' physical development and adjust the educational process in advance. Research hypothesis: the use of a mathematical forecasting model based on a set of morphofunctional indicators will make it possible to assess students' readiness to reach the GTO standards with sufficient accuracy. This approach will make it possible to purposefully build pedagogical strategies for improving the level of physical fitness of students. The aim of the work is to create a predictive tool for assessing students' readiness to reach the GTO standards based on morphofunctional examination data. The study involved 280 male students aged 18-20 years without medical contraindications to physical activity. The method of multiple linear regression was used as a method of pedagogical forecasting. Data collection included: anthropometry, assessment of body composition, strength tests, endurance tests, and speed tests. Statistical processing was performed by SPSS27. An analysis of the works of domestic and foreign scientists on the topic was made, which confirmed the practicability of integrating mathematical modeling into the practice of physical education. Using the method of multiple linear regression based on morphofunctional examination data made it possible to obtain formulas for predictive calculation of students' readiness to reach the GTO standards. The tests showed that only 60% of the subjects could reach the standards for a bronze badge. This conclusion made it possible to provide the necessary recommendations for improving the curriculum for general physical training. The theoretical significance of the work lies in the expansion of scientific ideas about the relationship between morphofunctional indicators and the level of physical fitness of students. The practical significance lies in the possibility of introducing the developed tool in universities for systematic monitoring of students' physical fitness and optimizing the content of curricula.